So the "Blizzard That Shuts Down NJ" may have been a miss... but a NARROW miss only. We are looking at a small distance (in terms of storm system centers) of between 46-52miles only. This SLIGHT shift to the East of Storm Juno allowed most of NJ to escape "epic" storm force effects; NJ lucked out and did not get the 24" forecasted. But the storm did in fact become the superstorm that was forecast. Below are maps that will help those understand the seriousness of this storm, and just how lucky NJ really got with this "miss."
Image 1:
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| Juno location at 2PM ET 1/27/15 |
Note that Winter Storm Juno did in fact drop to a very low pressure of 975mb... this was in our forecast, as it was with all weather forecasters. This is a powerful storm by all accounts, producing hurricane force winds, many areas near Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Boston, etc., seeing sustained winds of over 45MPH with gusts up to and over 60MPH. There are reports from Massachusetts officials of winds in excess of 70MPH. Therefore, the WIND component of this storm, fell into place. Seas are also extremely bad at 19-29 feet, a dangerous situation for any vessels in the open waters.
Image 2:
This was the position of the storm last night when we made our update at around 2AM... the low had not yet intensified although it DID drop from the initial reading of 998mb to 991mb by that time. As noted, we saw that the storm was going to push east... but the effects on NJ with that push were not exactly known. There were ample heavy snow bands, thunder/lightning embedded in the bands themselves... Coastal Flooding, as noted in the image, was a concern... primarily vs heavy snow at 2AM update.
Image 3:
In terms of SNOW.... most areas of NJ did see ample snow... areas north of Forked River saw at least 6 new inches of snow, as did central and north Jersey... most recording 8-10". Coastal areas, usually are immune from significant snow, however, even those regions saw 7-8". NYC did record over 15-inches of snow, which is significant for that area. LONG ISLAND as we reported all along, was going to see a significant amount of snow, and that held true... 22+ inches was recorded in Long Island and that trend continued northeastward through CT, RI and Mass... with multiple areas over the 20-inch mark. As seen in the image above, the margin of error ended up being around 46-52 miles east of what was forecast... making all the difference for NJ.
So was the storm a "bust?" In short, absolutely not! It was and remains a powerful storm causing severe issues for those in the Boston region. Was it the epic storm for NJ / NYC? In short, no... as the low shifted ever so slightly eastward sparing NJ the "Snowmageddon" type amounts. The storm happened... it just happened slightly more east than expected.
These types of errors happen. Meteorology is not an exact science. Neither is Medicine. Neither is working in outer space... neither is predicting earthquakes... all "Natural Sciences" are imperfect and are improving continuously. The fact that the storm DID develop and rapidly deepen to 975mb proves that forecasters did take the model data and interpret it correctly... a massive storm did develop. Predicting the EXACT PATH of such storms, remains elusive, and likely will for some time until enough trial-and-error allows scientists to perfect the model data.
In short... I wouldn't call this a miss, I would say it was a "gift" to NJ... 2-3 feet of snow would have crippled transportation, Emergency Services, healthcare workers ability to get to homebound patients, etc. We don't need that type of snow, and I consider us very luck that it tracked those 46 miles east.
