BLIZZARD OF 2015: MISSES NJ.... HITS NEW ENGLAND FULL FORCE

1/27/2015 13:00

So the "Blizzard That Shuts Down NJ" may have been a miss... but a NARROW miss only.   We are looking at a small distance (in terms of storm system centers) of between 46-52miles only.  This SLIGHT shift to the East of Storm Juno allowed most of NJ to escape "epic" storm force effects;  NJ lucked out and did not get the 24" forecasted.  But the storm did in fact become the superstorm that was forecast.  Below are maps that will help those understand the seriousness of this storm, and just how lucky NJ really got with this "miss."

Image 1:

Juno location at 2PM ET 1/27/15

Note that Winter Storm Juno did in fact drop to a very low pressure of 975mb... this was in our forecast, as it was with all weather forecasters.  This is a powerful storm by all accounts, producing hurricane force winds, many areas near Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Boston, etc., seeing sustained winds of over 45MPH with gusts up to and over 60MPH.  There are reports from Massachusetts officials of winds in excess of 70MPH.  Therefore, the WIND component of this storm, fell into place.   Seas are also extremely bad at 19-29 feet, a dangerous situation for any vessels in the open waters.

Image 2:

This was the position of the storm last night when we made our update at around 2AM... the low had not yet intensified although it DID drop from the initial reading of 998mb to 991mb by that time.   As noted, we saw that the storm was going to push east... but the effects on NJ with that push were not exactly known.  There were ample heavy snow bands, thunder/lightning embedded in the bands themselves... Coastal Flooding, as noted in the image, was a concern... primarily vs heavy snow at 2AM update.

Image 3:

In terms of SNOW.... most areas of NJ did see ample snow... areas north of Forked River saw at least 6 new inches of snow, as did central and north Jersey... most recording 8-10".  Coastal areas, usually are immune from significant snow, however, even those regions saw 7-8".   NYC did record over 15-inches of snow, which is significant for that area.  LONG ISLAND as we reported all along, was going to see a significant amount of snow, and that held true... 22+ inches was recorded in Long Island and that trend continued northeastward through CT, RI and Mass... with multiple areas over the 20-inch mark.  As seen in the image above, the margin of error ended up being around 46-52 miles east of what was forecast... making all the difference for NJ.

So was the storm a "bust?"  In short, absolutely not!  It was and remains a powerful storm causing severe issues for those in the Boston region.  Was it the epic storm for NJ / NYC?  In short, no... as the low shifted ever so slightly eastward sparing NJ the "Snowmageddon" type amounts.  The storm happened... it just happened slightly more east than expected.

These types of errors happen.  Meteorology is not an exact science.  Neither is Medicine.  Neither is working in outer space... neither is predicting earthquakes... all "Natural Sciences" are imperfect and are improving continuously.  The fact that the storm DID develop and rapidly deepen to 975mb proves that forecasters did take the model data and interpret it correctly... a massive storm did develop.  Predicting the EXACT PATH of such storms, remains elusive, and likely will for some time until enough trial-and-error allows scientists to perfect the model data.

In short... I wouldn't call this a miss, I would say it was a "gift" to NJ... 2-3 feet of snow would have crippled transportation, Emergency Services, healthcare workers ability to get to homebound patients, etc.  We don't need that type of snow, and I consider us very luck that it tracked those 46 miles east.

FACEBOOK IS DOWN: STORM CONTINUES FOR EAST COAST - BLIZZARD 2015

For those unable to see posts on Facebook, the following is the current weather situation as of 2:04AM on Tuesday morning, 1/27/2015:

Clearly, winds have picked up, as has the snow entering into NJ, NY, Long Island, CT, Boston, Rhode Island.... 63MPH gusts are being reported with 50MPH sustained winds north of the Low.  To the west, winds are not as strong, only gusting to around 25MPH at the present time.  The pressure has dropped to 990mb which is only 1 notch down from our last report a few hours ago.  The track of the Low has actually tracked a bit EAST... so this could affect the amount of snow, probably edging towards lower amounts, than previously thought.  Either way, this will be a fairly significant snow event for almost all eastern seaboard areas of NJ, NY, as well as New England.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1243 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS HIGH IMPACT SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND AS WELL AS EXTREME NE PARTS OF NJ.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE EST HAS BEEN ISSUED AT 1230 AM AND HAS INCLUDED SOME LOWERING
OF WSW FLAGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE WARNINGS WERE
CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. THE BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS AS IT WAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD WERE CUT BY A GOOD AMOUNT. A
STRONG BAND OF SNOW IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL NJ AREAS...MOSTLY
NORTH WITH BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THERE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL  HOURS. SNOW IN THE WARNING AREAS IS OCCURRING IN
WAVES...BUT A GOOD DEAL OF BLOWING SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED. UPDATED
SNOW TOTALS AND WSW PRODUCT HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

JERSEY WEATHERGUYS PROVIDES NJ / NY WITH 2 HOURS ADVANCED WARNINGS

WHY YOU NEED THE JERSEY WEATHERGUYS:  100% ACCURACY WITH 2-4 HOURS ADVANCED NOTICE GIVEN!

If you are curious as to how effective the Jersey Weathguys accuracy rate is, and how much advanced notice you may obtain IN ADVANCE of Severe Weather, the following data demonstrates the skill of our team, the accuracy of detecting potentially damaging storms and the ability to detect storm intensification scientifically and report those findings immediately with the goal of protecting lives and property.  A special thank you to Bob Burger, Chris Aldrich and Dave Jonaitis for their efforts as well during the storm outbreak between July 13th through July 15th.   Here are the important Storm-By-The-Numbers (SBTN) for this particular outbreak:

July 13th, 2014

At 6:30PM, and again at 6:53PM, the Jersey WeatherGuys (JWG) issued a Severe Weather Alert for a potential Severe Thunderstorm that would affect Western NJ.  At 10:27PM, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Mount Holly, NJ issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning… JWG provided nearly 4 hours advance notice on this storm.

July 14th, 2014

At 3:57PM, JWG posted an advisory for a possible Severe Thunderstorm with rotation observed in the wall clouds that formed.   At 4:21PM, the NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for this storm.   JWG provided approximately 25 minutes advanced warning on this particular cell.

At 6:26PM, the JWG posted an “Area of Concern” regarding a potentially damaging storm cell developing in Maryland.  Based on that particular storm’s history, it’s trajectory and prior Tornado Warning… JWG issued an alert for most of South and Central Jersey.  At 7:03PM, the NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Salem County for that same storm.  The warnings were further extended into Glouster/Camden Counties (7:29PM) and Burlington/Camden Counties (7:53PM) and finally Ocean/Monmouth at 8:36PM.  Most importantly, this same storm line became Tornado Warned in Burlington County at 8:19PM!   Jersey WeatherGuys provided nearly 2 HOURS ADVANCED WARNING on the Tornado Storm Line… and between 1/2 hour - 2 hours advanced notice for this severe storm line for most of Southern/Central Jersey!

July 15th, 2014

At 1:30PM, the Jersey WeatherGuys issued an initial alert for a line of storms that were increasing in intensity, and appeared to be ramping up to severe status.  Again at 1:50PM, the JWG issued an additional alert for this same line of storms.  The National Weather Service issued Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for multiple counties including Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean and Burlington at 2:29PM and 2:30PM.  Jersey WeatherGuys provided over 1 hour advanced warning of this line of storms for all of the Counties listed in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning areas.

At 3:10PM, the JerseyWeatherGuys observed and reported an Area of Concern for Southern NJ… a line of thunderstorms that appeared to be intensifying on Doppler Radar.  At 3:42PM, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Counties in South Jersey for that same line of storms (Salem/Glouster).  Jersey WeatherGuys provided over 1/2 hour advanced warning for that line of storms.

At 4:03PM, the Jersey WeatherGuys provided a detailed analysis of another Area of Concern for a line of storms that appeared to be intensifying and heading into a highly populated region of NJ (Middlesex, Mercer, Ocean, Monmouth and Burlington Counties).  At 4:55PM and again at 5:11PM, the National Weather Service issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Middlesex, Somerset, Mercer, Morris and Hunterdon Counties.  The Jersey WeatherGuys provided approximately 45 minutes advanced warning for these areas.  At 5:16PM and again at 6:11PM, the National Weather Service extended those Warnings to Coastal Ocean and Monmouth Counties.   The Jersey WeatherGuys provided ONE TO TWO HOURS advanced notice for those counties.

This is in addition to several hours advanced notice of Flash Flood Warnings that were issued for multiple counties in NJ between 7/14/14 - 7/15/14 as well as a few notices published for NYC and Long Island with a minimum of 30 minutes advanced notice.

Data Source:  National Weather Service Mount Holly.

Jersey WeatherGuys Severe Weather Forecaster: GSL / OCNJ009

Verified:  July 16, 2014

SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE FOR MONDAY, JULY 14th, 2014: NJ, NY, PA, CT, MD, VA

*** SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE:  IMMEDIATE RELEASE, MONDAY, JULY 14th, 2014 ****

Looking at our weather map, we see the double-low pressure systems sitting over Michican and Illinois… those will be moving down through Indiana, Ohio and tracking in an Easterly direction towards NJ later today and tonight….

Behind those lows, are nice COOL temperatures…. the air mass is from Canada, and as such, is pulling in temperatures that will only hit the 60’s over much of the mid-west over the next few days.

Those low temperatures WILL NOT hit  NJ…. as we will stay fairly warm, particularly today and tomorrow….

Looking around NJ temps are safely in the 80’s in most places:

81 in Ringwood, 86 in New Brunswick, 85 in Toms River, 87 near Cape May and a bit coller along the Shore, most temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s…

Looking at the Radar…. not much happening currently around the state, although we did have some small pop-up showers around Ocean County, particularly between Toms River and Point Pleasant areas… Some showers are moving in to the NW portion of NJ near Sussex County… but most of the heavy rain and thunder activity still remains off to our west, but storms are now popping up around Lancaster, PA…. this will likely be there pattern during the early afternoon as we see our daytime temperatures interact with an already unstable atmosphere…

Let’s talk about the severe weather that we are expecting, because it is very real concern for the next two to three days….

The cold-fronts pushing down from the Michigan / Illinois area will slowly make its way down from the north and push east… as it does so…. it is going to interact with the already hot and humid air that is sitting over much of the Mid-Atlantic region, including NJ.  This will happen slowly…. taking a few days to finally push through.

As the fronts come through, the unstable air sitting over NJ will easily trigger off thunderstorms, many of which will hit severe levels quickly.  Remember severe thunderstorms require winds over 57mph, hail or tornadoes… all of which are very real possibilities today, Tuesday and even part of Wednesday… at least until early morning wednesday….

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has already issued a Flash Flood Warning for most counties of NJ, particularly those along the delaware river, but also including Middlesex and western Monmouth Counties…. Flash Floods can happen quickly, and NJ is in a favorable position for Flash Floods to occur as rainfall amounts of 1-2” per hour are possible during any of the thunderstorms fired up later today and tomorrow.   

Looking at the potential rainfall amounts, not much has changed since our update on Sunday…. most areas of NJ are still well within the 2”-4” range over a 24 hour period starting this afternoon, and that will continue again on Tuesday… possibly Wednesday.  We are talking significant amounts of rain in a short amount of time… which may easily overwhelm small rivers and streams as well as over saturating the ground.

That brings us to the other problem which will be wind… high winds that come with any of thee more severe thunderstorms won’t have much problem taking down large trees if the ground becomes saturated quickly… we will all need to be particularly cautious later today during any severe thunderstorms, and as a general precaution, stay away from windows and under trees when possible as falling trees do kill people every year.

Looking at Severe Weather Risks… the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed all of NJ in the “Slight Risk Category” which means conditions are very much favorable to severe weather including Severe Thunderstorms which come with high winds, hail and even a possible Tornado… there is AMPLE energy… to the tune of 1500 - 2000Joules/kg in our atmosphere right now… and again, it will take very little to trigger off thunderstorms today, tomorrow into early Wednesday…  This is a particularly charged atmosphere, and we want to caution everyone that significant weather is possible today and Tuesday….  On Tuesday, pretty much the same set up as today… with generally southern NJ being in the crosshairs for possible severe weather… again, all of NJ will be seeing rain and thunderstorms Tomorrow… so no break in the action there….

Things should start to stabilize by mid-day wednseday … but we are looking ahead to Friday where Severe Weather and more Hot/Humid air comes back to NJ…

For now… be aware that severe weather can occur at any time after 2PM today… we will broadcast updates as usual on our social media sites such as Facebook at JerseyWeather Guys, and Twitter at NJWeatherGuys…. 

SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS IMPACT ON NORTHEAST / MID-ATLANTIC 7/13/14

Arriving just a little ahead of schedule, and with a bit of a punch, an elongated line of Severe Thunderstorms and several Tornado Warnings impacted many areas surrounding State College, PA region.

At 8:45PM, we are still watching this line of storms which has had a history of fairly widespread wind damage generally including trees being blown down.  One storm report included a rainfall rate of 1" in 20 minutes, or the equivalent of 3-inches per hour.  A tornado warned storm also is tracking eastward out the Virginia region towards NJ... and we are watching these lines carefully.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was posted by the NWS at 7:50PM for much of the western portion of NJ with Warnings likely by 9:00PM.  Stay tuned as we cover the first of what is likely to be many Severe Thunderstorms over the next 48-72 hours.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR NJ: MONDAY, JULY 14th 2014

*** SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR NJ, NY, PA, CT, VA, DE, MD, WV, OH, TN ***

NJ IS OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, JULY 14th, 2014

This is a Severe Weather Update for all of NJ, including surrounding areas of NY and PA.  Severe Thunderstorms will be possible primarily across parts of the Ozarks, the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states / Southern New England on Monday.

Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKzo-n1Dw98&feature=youtu.be

Amplification of the large-scale upper air pattern will occur on Monday as a seasonably strong upper level tough becomes established from Ontario/Quebec southward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  A series of impulses over the Pacific Northwest / Norther Rockies will move East-SouthEastward at the crest of a ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin.  A pronounced cold front will extend from the lower Great Lakes across the Southern Plains while a pre-existing surface frontal boundary, reinforced by prior convective outflows will be in place in advance of the front from southern New England southwestward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Ozarks.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be present along the pre-existing front/outflow boundary early Monday and will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development later in the day.  However, and increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected with afternoon heating along both the southwestward surging cold front and the pre-existing boundary.  The presence of strengthening wind fields and heating of a moist boundary layer with upper 60’s / lower 70’s dew-points will provide a favorable environment for organized multi cells and line segments capable of damaging winds.

The “Slight Risk” area was extended northwestward across New England where 35-40KTS of shear will be present by the afternoon and heating of lower 70’s dew-points will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg.  Damaging winds are also likely with thunderstorms along the frontal boundary in this area.  Both the NAM and GFS guidance depict somewhat stronger low-level winds associated with a weak surface low that may result in at least some risk for a tornado with any semi-discrete thunderstorm.

As always, you can find active weather alerts here at www.JerseyWeatherGuys.com as well as on Twitter at @NJWeatherGuys ... Stay tuned as there will likely be frequent updates to this forecast... while severe weather is not imminent, conditions are favorable during the Monday morning/afternoon timeframe through Tuesday, July 15th.  In addition to severe weather, flooding may become a big issue for NJ as precipitation in the amounts of 2"-4" is forecast for most of NJ and NYC / Long Island northeast through New England.

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY, JULY 14TH, 2014

*** SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY, JULY 14, 2014 ***

HAVING REVIEWED THE SPC FORECAST GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, THERE APPEARS TO BE AT MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, 7/12/14.  NJ HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MONDAY UNDER “SLIGHT RISK” AS WELL, AND THEREFORE, THIS IS BEING PUBLISHED FOR YOUR GUIDANCE.  AS OF TODAY, SATURDAY, THE SPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000J/KG AND UP TO 2000J/KG AT LEAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NJ, EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL NJ AS THE DAY GOES ON.

 

 

SHEAR/CAPE EXIST FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM A PERIOD STARTING MONDAY MORNING AROUND 11AM LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY 11AM (ACTUAL TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED PRIOR TO MONDAY). WE ARE ISSUING THIS GUIDANCE TODAY DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE DOUBLE COLD FRONT AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE, OR DECREASE, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HEAT IS AVAILABLE ON MONDAY.  HERE IS THE OFFICIAL TEXT FROM THE SPC AND NWS FOR THE NJ/PHI AREA:

A TROUGH OF SUBSTANTIAL AMPLITUDE WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST MID-LEVE HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M PER 12H FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM MN/WI TO MI/OH/INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...PER LATEST ECMWF (THIS REFERS TO THE MUCH DEBATED “POLAR VORTEX” OF JULY). 

THE FORECAST IS MADE MORE COMPLEX GIVEN A MORE DIFFUSE FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL PRECEDE THE STRONGER COLD FRONT...AND THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG/NEAR BOTH BOUNDARIES AND THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW.

MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NJ/PA/NY AND NORTHERN DELMARVA AREAS… GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST COMPLEXITIES ONLY A BROAD ZONE OF RELATIVELY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES CAN BE DEPICTED IN THIS OUTLOOK. THE LEADING FRONT WILL BE INTERSPERSED WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW…AND LIKELY ONGOING STORMS...THAT SHOULD SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST INTO A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING AS DEPICTED IN BOTH NAM AND PARALLEL NAM...AS WELL AS GFS AND ECMWF...WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TO SEVERAL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL. 

FOR NJ / PA SPECIFICALLY, ON MONDAY, THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THAT IS WELL AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD  . HOT AND HUMID ARE FORECAST WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND THE LLVL THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IF CLOUDS LINGER LATER INTO THE DAY THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S MAY NOT BE REALIZED. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER DO OCCUR, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION (MEDIAN SBCAPE FROM THE 09Z SREF ARE 1500-2000 J/KG) WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG A SHARPENING LEE SFC TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER SW WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, HELPING TO INCREASE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER THE AREA (FCST MEDIAN 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM THE 09Z SREF INCREASES TO 40 KT ACROSS NERN PA LATE IN THE DAY). THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK BY SPC FOR MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY 8PM

FRONTAL BOUNDARY / PRECIPITATION APPROXIMATELY 8AM IN NORTHWEST NJ... A BIT LATER FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ.... TIMES MAY CHANGE PRIOR TO MONDAY 7/14/14