SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR NJ: MONDAY, JULY 14th 2014

*** SEVERE WEATHER ALERT FOR NJ, NY, PA, CT, VA, DE, MD, WV, OH, TN ***

NJ IS OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, JULY 14th, 2014

This is a Severe Weather Update for all of NJ, including surrounding areas of NY and PA.  Severe Thunderstorms will be possible primarily across parts of the Ozarks, the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic states / Southern New England on Monday.

Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKzo-n1Dw98&feature=youtu.be

Amplification of the large-scale upper air pattern will occur on Monday as a seasonably strong upper level tough becomes established from Ontario/Quebec southward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  A series of impulses over the Pacific Northwest / Norther Rockies will move East-SouthEastward at the crest of a ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin.  A pronounced cold front will extend from the lower Great Lakes across the Southern Plains while a pre-existing surface frontal boundary, reinforced by prior convective outflows will be in place in advance of the front from southern New England southwestward into portions of the Ohio Valley and Ozarks.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be present along the pre-existing front/outflow boundary early Monday and will likely influence subsequent thunderstorm development later in the day.  However, and increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected with afternoon heating along both the southwestward surging cold front and the pre-existing boundary.  The presence of strengthening wind fields and heating of a moist boundary layer with upper 60’s / lower 70’s dew-points will provide a favorable environment for organized multi cells and line segments capable of damaging winds.

The “Slight Risk” area was extended northwestward across New England where 35-40KTS of shear will be present by the afternoon and heating of lower 70’s dew-points will support MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg.  Damaging winds are also likely with thunderstorms along the frontal boundary in this area.  Both the NAM and GFS guidance depict somewhat stronger low-level winds associated with a weak surface low that may result in at least some risk for a tornado with any semi-discrete thunderstorm.

As always, you can find active weather alerts here at www.JerseyWeatherGuys.com as well as on Twitter at @NJWeatherGuys ... Stay tuned as there will likely be frequent updates to this forecast... while severe weather is not imminent, conditions are favorable during the Monday morning/afternoon timeframe through Tuesday, July 15th.  In addition to severe weather, flooding may become a big issue for NJ as precipitation in the amounts of 2"-4" is forecast for most of NJ and NYC / Long Island northeast through New England.