*** SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE: IMMEDIATE RELEASE, MONDAY, JULY 14th, 2014 ****
Looking at our weather map, we see the double-low pressure systems sitting over Michican and Illinois… those will be moving down through Indiana, Ohio and tracking in an Easterly direction towards NJ later today and tonight….
Behind those lows, are nice COOL temperatures…. the air mass is from Canada, and as such, is pulling in temperatures that will only hit the 60’s over much of the mid-west over the next few days.
Those low temperatures WILL NOT hit NJ…. as we will stay fairly warm, particularly today and tomorrow….
Looking around NJ temps are safely in the 80’s in most places:
81 in Ringwood, 86 in New Brunswick, 85 in Toms River, 87 near Cape May and a bit coller along the Shore, most temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s…
Looking at the Radar…. not much happening currently around the state, although we did have some small pop-up showers around Ocean County, particularly between Toms River and Point Pleasant areas… Some showers are moving in to the NW portion of NJ near Sussex County… but most of the heavy rain and thunder activity still remains off to our west, but storms are now popping up around Lancaster, PA…. this will likely be there pattern during the early afternoon as we see our daytime temperatures interact with an already unstable atmosphere…
Let’s talk about the severe weather that we are expecting, because it is very real concern for the next two to three days….
The cold-fronts pushing down from the Michigan / Illinois area will slowly make its way down from the north and push east… as it does so…. it is going to interact with the already hot and humid air that is sitting over much of the Mid-Atlantic region, including NJ. This will happen slowly…. taking a few days to finally push through.
As the fronts come through, the unstable air sitting over NJ will easily trigger off thunderstorms, many of which will hit severe levels quickly. Remember severe thunderstorms require winds over 57mph, hail or tornadoes… all of which are very real possibilities today, Tuesday and even part of Wednesday… at least until early morning wednesday….
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ has already issued a Flash Flood Warning for most counties of NJ, particularly those along the delaware river, but also including Middlesex and western Monmouth Counties…. Flash Floods can happen quickly, and NJ is in a favorable position for Flash Floods to occur as rainfall amounts of 1-2” per hour are possible during any of the thunderstorms fired up later today and tomorrow.
Looking at the potential rainfall amounts, not much has changed since our update on Sunday…. most areas of NJ are still well within the 2”-4” range over a 24 hour period starting this afternoon, and that will continue again on Tuesday… possibly Wednesday. We are talking significant amounts of rain in a short amount of time… which may easily overwhelm small rivers and streams as well as over saturating the ground.
That brings us to the other problem which will be wind… high winds that come with any of thee more severe thunderstorms won’t have much problem taking down large trees if the ground becomes saturated quickly… we will all need to be particularly cautious later today during any severe thunderstorms, and as a general precaution, stay away from windows and under trees when possible as falling trees do kill people every year.
Looking at Severe Weather Risks… the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has placed all of NJ in the “Slight Risk Category” which means conditions are very much favorable to severe weather including Severe Thunderstorms which come with high winds, hail and even a possible Tornado… there is AMPLE energy… to the tune of 1500 - 2000Joules/kg in our atmosphere right now… and again, it will take very little to trigger off thunderstorms today, tomorrow into early Wednesday… This is a particularly charged atmosphere, and we want to caution everyone that significant weather is possible today and Tuesday…. On Tuesday, pretty much the same set up as today… with generally southern NJ being in the crosshairs for possible severe weather… again, all of NJ will be seeing rain and thunderstorms Tomorrow… so no break in the action there….
Things should start to stabilize by mid-day wednseday … but we are looking ahead to Friday where Severe Weather and more Hot/Humid air comes back to NJ…
For now… be aware that severe weather can occur at any time after 2PM today… we will broadcast updates as usual on our social media sites such as Facebook at JerseyWeather Guys, and Twitter at NJWeatherGuys….
No comments:
Post a Comment