NJ WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST 3/18-3/22

#NJ WEEKLY #WEATHER FORECAST

4-8-12" SNOW PROBABILITY MAP: NJ 3/16-3/17

UPGRADED SNOWFALL TOTALS MAP: 3/16 NJ

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACTIVE FOR NJ: UPGRADED WINTER STORM 3/16-3/17

Upgraded: 3/16 at 3:00pm

4-8-12 INCH SNOW PROBABILITIES: NJ / PA 3/17/14

ON DAY 3 IN THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...MODELS
APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES
IS EXPECTED.  WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
ARE LESS CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. 

A BAND OF 6-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES SHOWING NORTH-SOUTH
OSCILLATIONS ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN 12Z GEFS MEAN QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NORTHERN
NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND/SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE SOUTH TREND ON THE 12Z
GEFS/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL LEADS TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
SNOW IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST VA.  THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z NAM EXTEND HIGHER
QPF/RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
PA/NJ/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...SO ONE CAMP OR THE OTHER WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.  THE 15Z SREF HAS ALREADY
MADE A MAJOR REDUCTION IN QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA FROM ITS 09Z RUN.

WINTER WEATHER BRIEFING FOR MONDAY 3/17/14 (NJ / PA)

WINTER WEATHER ALERT: NJ / PA ON 3/17/14

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

For Southern NJ:  March 12, 2014

NJ SEVERE WEATHER ALERT: March 12, 2014

NJ SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE:  The National Weather Service / Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the overall risk of severe weather for Central NJ and South NJ... This area is under slight risk for Severe Thunderstorms and wind shear is ample enough for an isolated tornado.  Please stay tuned for updates as this system makes its way through our area tonight.  Real time weather watches and warnings may be found on our website at the top of the page for quick viewing.

GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK IN NORTHEAST BETWEEN 4PM-MIDNIGHT, 3/12

POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NJ: WED, 3/12

NJ Winter Weather Update for Wednesday, March 12th

SNOW FOR NJ UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME (Exception will be Sussex County, NJ)....

Current National Weather Service Discussion:

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY RAIN FOR OUR AREA EXCEPT MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE EVENT ALONG AND N OF I80 FROM SUSSEX COUNTY INTO THE POCONOS AND EVEN HERE...CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE THE 12Z/10 ECMWF.

SREF SNOW ACCUM PROBS HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 03Z/10. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG PRES FALLS THROUGH NNJ WILL DRAW COLD SURFACE AIR SOUTHWARD BENEATH ABOVE 32F AIR ALOFT POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE POCONOS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HUGE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLUX WITH 10MB 3 HR PRES RISES DURING THE EVENING MAY PERMIT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS IN THE 8PM TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SPOTTY COVERINGS OF SNOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO I78 BUT AM NOT AT ALL CONVINCED SINCE NW FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDER STORM IN DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ IN THE 3PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPE IS LESS THAN 200J SO PLAYED IT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE MOMENT.  IN FACT...IT MAY NOT RAIN AT ALL PRIOR TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST.

TURNING QUITE WINDY LATE WED NIGHT WITH STG NNW CAA. WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH 10MB 3 HOURLY RISES AT 03Z/THURSDAY EASTERN PA AS BL WIND INCREASES TO 30 KT AND CAA PERMITS TRANSFER TO ABOUT 3500 FT (42-48KT).

THURSDAY....WINDY AND VERY COLD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.

Image: Areas outlined have the greatest chance of seeing accumulating snow.  As plotted, snow will be generally located well to the north and east of NJ.  The jackpot area will be central NY State, Northern Ohio and PA as well as New England.  Threat of any significant snow for NJ other than Sussex County has been essentially eliminated.

SNOW PROBABILITY FOR NJ: Moderate to Low...

SNOW RISK FOR NORTHWEST NJ:  Wednesday, 3/12/14

NWS Snow Probability Map has a 10% chance of 4" of snow over the Sussex County area... less South and East of Sussex County...  The main chance of winter weather will be in northern PA, Central NY State and New England.  As this system gets closer, the maps will be updated.  As for now, there is not much concern for any significant snow for the majority of NJ / NYC.

For NJ:  5-10% chance of 2-inches of snow by Thursday, 3/14/14 (low risk).  Sussex County has better chance of 2+"....

SLIGHT CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER (RAIN / SLEET/ SNOW) WEDNESDAY, 3/12/14FOR #NJ

POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT FOR NJ:  SHORT VERSION-  A burst of energy will be crossing the US from California and crosses close to our area on Wednesday.  There is good model agreement that this storm will occur, the only variable not verified 100% yet is the exact timing and speed of the system crossing North America.  In all cases, NJ should only see rain at the onset, with a changeover to snow as Arctic air pushes southward through our area.  Given surface heating recently and the overall dynamics of this system, it is not likely NJ will see much of a massive accumulating snow, if at all.  Snow that develops later on may cover the ground during late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, and by Thursday morning all precipitation should end from West to East.  I will update this over the next 24-36 hours (this winter has been full of surprises... So until this system is here, giving snow amounts would be difficult to nail down just yet.  It won't be a massive snow system in any case... Mostly rain in NJ.  One more possible storm next weekend, but let's review that after Wednesday... -GSL

OFFICIAL NWS DISCUSSION OF WEDNESDAY EVENT:

.... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ON THE FASTER SIDE, AND THE
ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SLOWER SIDE. IF THE FASTER TIMING WORKS OUT,
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN AS ALL RAIN FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A
WINTRY MIX. EVEN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A WINTRY MIX,
IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR GETS DAMMED UP ACROSS THE AREA TO
PREVENT THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. 

AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST, COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD THEN BEGIN TRANSITIONING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT, WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MOVE IT OUT QUICKER. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP QUITE A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY GUST 25-35 MPH OR HIGHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
NOSES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL MAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST AREAS, HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND KEEPS
MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW WE WILL PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SNOW SHOWERS.

Jersey WeatherGuys Hits the Web... and More....

3/9/14

With the Spring Ahead now behind us, we are moving forward with how we reach our viewers.  To that extent, we are now going to be publishing on several Social Media platforms so that our audience has access to even more detailed information, in a variety of formats.

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