NJ Winter Weather Update for Wednesday, March 12th

SNOW FOR NJ UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME (Exception will be Sussex County, NJ)....

Current National Weather Service Discussion:

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY RAIN FOR OUR AREA EXCEPT MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE EVENT ALONG AND N OF I80 FROM SUSSEX COUNTY INTO THE POCONOS AND EVEN HERE...CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE THE 12Z/10 ECMWF.

SREF SNOW ACCUM PROBS HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 03Z/10. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG PRES FALLS THROUGH NNJ WILL DRAW COLD SURFACE AIR SOUTHWARD BENEATH ABOVE 32F AIR ALOFT POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE POCONOS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HUGE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLUX WITH 10MB 3 HR PRES RISES DURING THE EVENING MAY PERMIT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS IN THE 8PM TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SPOTTY COVERINGS OF SNOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO I78 BUT AM NOT AT ALL CONVINCED SINCE NW FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDER STORM IN DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ IN THE 3PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAPE IS LESS THAN 200J SO PLAYED IT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AT THE MOMENT.  IN FACT...IT MAY NOT RAIN AT ALL PRIOR TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA SOUTH AND EAST.

TURNING QUITE WINDY LATE WED NIGHT WITH STG NNW CAA. WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH 10MB 3 HOURLY RISES AT 03Z/THURSDAY EASTERN PA AS BL WIND INCREASES TO 30 KT AND CAA PERMITS TRANSFER TO ABOUT 3500 FT (42-48KT).

THURSDAY....WINDY AND VERY COLD FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH DAYTIME TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN.

Image: Areas outlined have the greatest chance of seeing accumulating snow.  As plotted, snow will be generally located well to the north and east of NJ.  The jackpot area will be central NY State, Northern Ohio and PA as well as New England.  Threat of any significant snow for NJ other than Sussex County has been essentially eliminated.