POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT FOR NJ: SHORT VERSION- A burst of energy will be crossing the US from California and crosses close to our area on Wednesday. There is good model agreement that this storm will occur, the only variable not verified 100% yet is the exact timing and speed of the system crossing North America. In all cases, NJ should only see rain at the onset, with a changeover to snow as Arctic air pushes southward through our area. Given surface heating recently and the overall dynamics of this system, it is not likely NJ will see much of a massive accumulating snow, if at all. Snow that develops later on may cover the ground during late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, and by Thursday morning all precipitation should end from West to East. I will update this over the next 24-36 hours (this winter has been full of surprises... So until this system is here, giving snow amounts would be difficult to nail down just yet. It won't be a massive snow system in any case... Mostly rain in NJ. One more possible storm next weekend, but let's review that after Wednesday... -GSL
OFFICIAL NWS DISCUSSION OF WEDNESDAY EVENT:
.... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND
MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ON THE FASTER SIDE, AND THE
ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SLOWER SIDE. IF THE FASTER TIMING WORKS OUT,
WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT THE MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT FOR PRECIPITATION
TO BEGIN AS ALL RAIN FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE PRECIPITATION COULD START OUT AS A
WINTRY MIX. EVEN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS A WINTRY MIX,
IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR GETS DAMMED UP ACROSS THE AREA TO
PREVENT THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.
AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR
NORTHEAST, COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD THEN BEGIN TRANSITIONING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION
TO SLEET AND/OR SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE PRECIPITATION OUT, WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MOVE IT OUT QUICKER. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
UP QUITE A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY GUST 25-35 MPH OR HIGHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
NOSES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND STILL MAY END UP BEING
MOSTLY DRY FOR MOST AREAS, HOWEVER, THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE SYSTEM MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND KEEPS
MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH. FOR NOW WE WILL PUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE SNOW SHOWERS.
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