4-8-12 INCH SNOW PROBABILITIES: NJ / PA 3/17/14

ON DAY 3 IN THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...MODELS
APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES
IS EXPECTED.  WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
ARE LESS CLEAR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PHASING OF THE
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAMS AND SUBSEQUENT SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. 

A BAND OF 6-10 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MODEL RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES SHOWING NORTH-SOUTH
OSCILLATIONS ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN 12Z GEFS MEAN QPF ACROSS NORTHERN PA/NORTHERN
NJ/NYC/LONG ISLAND/SRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE SOUTH TREND ON THE 12Z
GEFS/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL LEADS TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
SNOW IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VA...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN IN
SOUTHWEST VA.  THE 09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z NAM EXTEND HIGHER
QPF/RESULTANT HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN
PA/NJ/NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...SO ONE CAMP OR THE OTHER WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.  THE 15Z SREF HAS ALREADY
MADE A MAJOR REDUCTION IN QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA FROM ITS 09Z RUN.