THE MODELS SHOW A LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 300 MB DIVERGENCE AND 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING FROM WV ACROSS VA/MD/DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ BEFORE GOING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SFC LOW REFLECTION HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...SO THE SNOW AXIS HAS AS WELL. THE PEAK 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION CROSSES CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA ACROSS SOUTHERN MD/WASHINGTON DC TO THE DELMARVA...WHERE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ARE FCST...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER. THE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER ON THE AXIS/ORIENTATION AND AMOUNTS...BUT THE NAM AND SREF MEAN HAVE HIGHER QPF AND RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. ECMWF SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHERN VA/DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREA TO SIGNAL CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS.
PROBABILITIES TAPER TO THE NORTH ACROSS PA/NJ WHERE THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE AXIS OF SNOW EXTENDS...AND FURTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHERN VA/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THE MODELS FCST A MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES...CUTTING DOWN SNOW TOTALS. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FCST FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY TO NORTHWEST NC AND SOUTHWEST VA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE CENTRAL VA/NC BORDER.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR THE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS..WITHOUT STRONG WEIGHTING TO ANY ONE SOLUTION OR CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS.
THE MODELS SHOW A LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STRONG 700 MB
ReplyDeleteTHETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 300 MB
DIVERGENCE AND 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS CROSSING FROM WV ACROSS
VA/MD/DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ BEFORE GOING NORTHEAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SFC LOW REFLECTION HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...SO THE SNOW AXIS HAS AS WELL. THE
PEAK 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION CROSSES CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MD/WASHINGTON DC TO THE DELMARVA...WHERE HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS ARE FCST...WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE WV/VA
BORDER.
THE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER ON THE AXIS/ORIENTATION
AND AMOUNTS...BUT THE NAM AND SREF MEAN HAVE HIGHER QPF AND
RESULTANT SNOW TOTALS THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. ECMWF SNOW TOTALS HAVE
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHERN VA/DC/BALTIMORE METRO
AREA TO SIGNAL CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS.
PROBABILITIES TAPER TO THE NORTH ACROSS PA/NJ WHERE THERE IS LESS
AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE AXIS OF SNOW EXTENDS...AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN SOUTHERN VA/SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THE MODELS FCST A
MIXTURE OF PRECIP TYPES...CUTTING DOWN SNOW TOTALS.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FCST FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE MID LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KY TO NORTHWEST NC AND SOUTHWEST VA...WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS TO THE CENTRAL VA/NC BORDER.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS TAKEN FOR THE DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS..WITHOUT STRONG WEIGHTING TO ANY ONE
SOLUTION OR CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS.